Top 10 Trends of the New Decade 2010 to 2020
Monday 11 January 2010
TOP 10 TRENDS OF THE NEW DECADE: 2010-2020
As we move into the second decade of the 21st Century, Social Researcher and
Futurist Mark McCrindle outlines 10 key trends that will define this next decade.
1.
THE RISE AND RISE OF AUSTRALIA’S POPULATION
In 2000 Australia had a population of 19 million and the population growth rate had
slowed to 1.2%. However over the last decade it has defied the predictions and
rather than slowing, the population increase has accelerated, finishing the decade
breaking 22 million with a population growth rate twice what was expected, hitting 2%
per annum. This decade will see Australia’s population hit 27 million.
“The highest ever birth numbers, combined with the lowest ever death rate, and record
net migration have combined to provide the perfect storm of population growth over
the last few years” states Mark McCrindle. “A decade ago it was predicted that
Australia’s population by mid-century would hit 27 million however at our current
record breaking growth, with our population growing by an extra million people every
two years, it is likely that it will hit this mark in 2020.”
2.
AUSTRALIA’S MINI BABY BOOM
Australia began the last decade with the lowest birth rate on record with a total
fertility rate (babies per woman) of 1.7 (2001). It was thought that the birth rate would
drop to 1.5 by the end of the decade but the reverse occurred. Australia finished
2009 with the highest total fertility rate for 32 years (now at 1.97 it is close to 2.01 of
1977) and the highest number of births ever (296,261). Also the women having the
most babies today are those in their 30’s rather than those in their 20’s of a decade
ago. The highest fertility continues to belong to females aged 30-34 years (127.8
babies per 1,000 women) – the highest for this cohort since 1961. Similarly, women
aged 35-39 years reached the highest rate for this cohort since
1948! This baby
boom will continue with annual births exceeding 300,000 throughout the decade
ahead. The number of women having no children in their lifetime is rising- currently it
is 1 in 4 yet the Total Fertility Rate is also rising –
caused by the women who are
having children having slightly larger families than those of a decade ago. Indeed the
average number of children per household (of those who are having children) is now
back up to 3.
3.
FROM XERS &
Y’S TO ZEDS & GENERATION ALPHA
The last decade began with us analysing Generation X and welcoming Generation Y.
Born since 1980,
Gen Y in 2000 were children and teenagers while in 2010 the
oldest of them turn 30 and become parents (30 is the average age of an Australian
woman having a child). While the last decade saw the birth of Generation Z -
born
from 1995 to 2009, it will be in the decade ahead that most in this generation move
through their teenage years and move towards independence. A generation today
spans 15 years which means that 2010 marks the start of the next generation:
Top 10 Trends of the New Decade 2010 to 2020
Monday 11 January 2010
Generation Alpha. They will be the most formally-educated generation in history –
starting education younger than ever and projected to stay in education for longer
than ever. As the children of older, wealthier parents, in two-income households and
with more entertainment and technological options, it is likely that they will be the
most materially-supplied generation of children ever.
4.
THE AGEING POPULATION
The last decade began with the Baby Boomers ranging in age from the mid 30’s to
early 50’s and it concludes with some of the Boomers entering
retirement and
becoming pensioners. This is the start of the age wave hitting Australia. By the end
of this decade (2020) there will be more 65 year olds than 1 year olds. In 2020 life
expectancy at birth will exceed 81 for a male and 86 for a female, and almost 1 in 5
Australians will be aged over 60. Over the next 4 decades while the total population
will increase by just over half, the 65 and over population will more than double and
the 85 and over population will triple. This ageing population will affect everything
from the national accounts, to demands on health and housing, to the workforce. In
2020 the never-grow-old Baby Boomers will be in their 60’s and 70’s, and the oldest
Gen Xers will be in their 50’s- and themselves beginning to exit from the labour force.
5.
REDEFINED LIFESTAGES:
TWITS, NETTELS AND THE DOWNAGERS
The last decade saw the emergence of the TWITS (Teenage Women in Their
Thirties). This emerging segment
provides a real comment on our times. Once
adulthood was marked by marriage, getting a mortgage and starting a family but
today for many,
these milestones have
been delayed. Indeed many women have
extended their adolescence, and others, after starting a family and reaching their 30’s
have entered a second teenage lifestage. The poster girls might be Pink, Victoria
Beckham or Gwen Stefani, however the segment is alive and growing in the
Australian suburbs too.
NETTELS (Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life) are the very busy couples and families,
usually found in the capital cities burdened with a large mortgage, a relatively
expensive lifestyle, and a long working week- often with a long commute as well. The
NETTELS are a fast-growing segment increasing by 7% per year.
It is not just younger Australians that are reinventing themselves. Our research has
identified the Downagers. These are Australians aged over 60 for whom age is just a
number. They comprise 24% of this demographic and feel and act far younger than
their age would suggest. They are the fastest growing segment of the 60+
demographic and they value travel, lifestyle, social connection, and they adapt quite
easily to new technology.
Top 10 Trends of the New Decade 2010 to 2020
Monday 11 January 2010
6.
RETURN OF THE MULTI-GENERATIONAL HOUSEHOLD
The last decade brought us the stay-at-home twenty-somethings who were labelled
the KIPPERS (Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings) Nearly 1 in 4
(23%) people aged 20-34 continue to live in the parental home. And it’s not just
those in their 20’s. In Australia there are 117,547 people in their early 30’s still living
at home with their parents (8% of Australians aged 30-34).
Generation Y have also been labelled the Boomerang Kids because it is increasingly
likely
that once they have moved out of home
they will
move back there again. Of
Australians aged 25-29 who live in their parental home, more than half of these
(54%) have moved out, and returned again. Most (52%) last less than 2 years before
moving back to the parental home with 20% lasting less than 1 year. 16% last more
than 4 years before returning home.
Indeed many Gen Xers and Yers are returning
to the parental home with their own young children in tow.
All of this has given rise to the Sandwich Generation. This describes
those Baby
Boomers sandwiched between the need to care for their dependent children and the
responsibility of caring for their older parents. This sandwich generation arises from
the combined trends of delayed childbirth, the delayed financial independence of
children, and the increasing life expectancy of the older generation. Consequently we
have seen this decade the emergence of the multi-generational household with the
parents housing their adult children (sometimes with their own young children in tow)
along with their own ageing parents. This multi-generational household, while new in
our era, is simply a return to what was the norm a century ago.
“Generation Y
are the world’s first digital generation, the world’s first global
generation, and the most entertained and materially endowed generation Australia has
ever seen.” stated Mark McCrindle. “This was the generation that expected to start
their economic life in the manner in which they saw their parents finish their economic
life, and when hit with the financial reality of independent living, many are reflecting on
the good deal they had living with their parents and so they are boomeranging back
home”.
7.
WEB 3.0
The last decade brought us Web 2.0 defined by social networking (think Facebook
and MySpace), user-generated content (from YouTube to Flickr) and new ways of
communicating (from the blogosphere to Twitter). However while it has been
fascinating, the novelty for many has faded and the next decade will bring demands
for useful applications and usable online tools. Like any new technology the first
wave of fun and entertainment is replaced by a focus on utility and practicality
and
this is what the decade ahead will bring.
8.
SHOPPING GETS RESPONSIBLE, SAVING IS BACK
After a decade of aspirational purchasing, and the growth of luxury brands, the
combined effects of the Global Financial Crisis and environmental sustainability have
Top 10 Trends of the New Decade 2010 to 2020
Monday 11 January 2010
delivered a slowdown to rampant materialism. With the Gen Yers entering their
parenting years and the Boomers heading towards retirement this decade will bring a
new era of austerity
for many. Saving is becoming the new spending and
conspicuous consumption will fade due to the growing pressures of an ageing
population, continued global financial uncertainty, high indebtedness in Australia, and
the rising costs of transport, energy, petrol and housing.
9.
WORK CHANGES-
FROM INCREASING DEMANDS TO CAREER
DEVELOPMENT
While the last decade saw the growth of portfolio careers, work-life balance, and
“sea-change” lifestyle jobs, this new decade is bringing back some new stability. With
the ageing population will come an ageing workforce, mass retirements, a skills
shortage, and a succession planning challenge. Over the next decade 40% of today’s
senior leaders will reach retirement age. Already the average age of an employed
person in the education sector is 44, and in the health sector it is 45. Therefore there
will be a premium paid to employees who can gain experience in a career, climb the
ranks within an organisation, and move into leadership positions. While flexibility, job
variety, collaborative leadership models, and work-life balance will remain part of
employment, there will be a return to training, skills development, longer job tenure
and stability.
10.
AUSTRALIA REDEFINED
Australia today is loved for more than the outback, the iconic
beaches, sporting
success and “no worries” attitude. Certainly the old affections run deep however the
21st
Century has brought a new sophistication
and a view of our nation
as an
innovative, technologically savvy, world-leading cultural hub and lifestyle destination.
The last decade has showed an Australia with a self-assuredness of our place
globally and a move from the old “cultural cringe” to an acceptance of our traditions,
history and interests beyond clichés. Much of this has come through our diverse and
growing cultural mix. Currently 1 in 4 Australians weren’t born here and the cultural
diversity of the Under 30’s is even greater than that of the Over 30’s. Of the
population growth in the decade ahead, only one-third will be through natural
increase and two-thirds through net migration. The decade ahead will continue to
redefine the Australian identity as a sophisticated, urban, hard working,
cosmopolitan, culturally diverse and globally connected nation.
Source:
McCrindle Research.
Research method:
Based on scoping research, statistical analysis, national
surveys and focus groups conducted by McCrindle Research.
For full reports on these trends, go to:
For comment or analysis: Mark McCrindle
P: 02 8824 3422
M: 0411 5000 90
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