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AFL Final Eight – 72 quadrillion possibilities?
RMIT University experts have crunched 72 quadrillion possible results from the
remaining 56 games of the season to predict the AFL’s final eight.
Dr Anthony Bedford, Head of RMIT’s Sports Statistics Research Group, said the
number crunching showed Geelong, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs were
guaranteed their spots in the finals.
But Dr Bedford said the high volatility of upcoming games meant few other
results were mathematically certain.
“We know that Geelong will definitely secure the double chance by finishing in
the top four and we know that neither West Coast nor Melbourne can make the
finals this year,” he said.
“But the teams in the top eight could still shift many times over the final seven
rounds.
“Excluding the possibility of draws, there are at least 72,057,594,037,927,936
possible results from the remaining 56 games.
“The Kangaroos, Richmond, Adelaide and St Kilda have the most volatile draws
according to our research – that is, if they lose, those teams will benefit at their
expense – so they’re the teams most likely to move up and down the ladder
multiple times over the next seven weeks.”
To work out the most probable final ladder, researchers simulate the last seven
rounds 100,000 times, theoretically playing the remaining season’s games
100,000 times over.
According to the simulation, the most probable result at the end of the season
almost mirrors the current ladder, with only Sydney and Collingwood switching
positions. The RMIT Simuladder’s final eight is (in descending order): Geelong,
Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney, Adelaide, Brisbane, St Kilda.
There is bad news for Fremantle fans from the predictions – the Dockers are only
a 50,000 to one chance of making the finals.
“Other teams currently outside the eight could still make it, with North Melbourne
at seven to two and Richmond at five to one,” Dr Bedford said.
For comment or interviews: RMIT University’s Head of the Sports Statistics
Group, Dr Anthony Bedford (03) 9925 6119 or 0419 782 877.
For general media enquiries: RMIT University Media and Communications,
Gosia Kaszubska, (03) 9925 3176 or 0417 510 735.
17 July, 2008
NEWS 
